The percentage of successful bets depends on the average weighted odds and the long term yield.Īny value above 0.1 units is a very good result. It is simply the average profit we would expect, and it is calculated as the number of bets multiplied by the yield and the average bet size. Intermediate resultsĪfter defining the inputs, we can obtain some intermediate results directly: Expected profit What is the probability of obtaining a yield that doubles the long term yield in a short series of bets? We can use this calculator to determine the exact value. If the odds are constant and we assume that the long term yield is also constant during those bets, we can calculate the probability of each possible number of won and lost bets with the binomial distribution, and therefore, the yield distribution. Variance affects the results after our number of bets. Probability of obtaining a yield greater than Y We would normally stop betting or reduce our bet size before reaching that big loss, but by calculating the probability of a maximum drawdown of half bankroll, we can compare the risk for different values of number of bets, yield, average weighted odds and bet size, and take decisions to adapt the risk to our risk tolerance profile. If we want to know what the probability of losing half your bankroll, and the bet size is expressed in units with 1 unit = 1% of the bankroll, and we maintain the bet size during the bad streak, we should take X equal to 50 units. In fact, the maximum drawdown is proportional to the bet size. X is in the same units as the average bet size. Probability of obtaining a drawdown greater than X With 1000 simulations of 1000 bets, we are reproducing 1 million bets in a blink of an eye. How many times are we simulating a series or number of bets? The higher the number of simulations, the more precise results we are obtaining, but it will take some more time (although the calculations are very simple and it will take just few seconds). Now we need three more parameters for the Montecarlo simulations and define some results we want to obtain: Number of Montecarlo simulations It can be expressed as units of stake, currency or percentage of the bankroll, but I always recommend to use the equivalency of 1 unit = 1% of the bankroll, so that it is easy to know how many times we have bet our bankroll (rollover), how much is the profit compared to the initial bankroll or how big is the drawdown. I can be calculated as the total volume bet divided by the number of bets. The average weighted odds can also be calculated from the Yield(%) and Hitrate(%), with the following formulas:Īs its name states, it is the average amount placed in each bet. It is the result of multiplying each bet odds by the stake, and dividing the result by the total amount bet. No one bets always at the same odds, but using this parameter, the results of the simulations are approximate enough. A skilled bettor should have a positive expected yield in the long term, although in a short series of bets, it could be losing. In the long term, the real yield achieved should tend to the expected yield. It is the percentage of net profit of the total amount bet. The number of bets “N” of a betting strategy from the beginning or during a determined period of time, depending on the analysis we are looking for. In order to define the characteristics of our simulation, we need these simple values: Number of bets Summary Sports Betting Calculator – Inputs This tool requires some basic understanding of betting terms and relevant mathematics so below is a full breakdown of all the inputs and outputs so you can use it most efficiently. However, with this calculator we have streamlined the whole process, just input your figures and press the button. It is based in several excel files we have provided in a previous article here. So we created this simple to use but powerful calculator. We need to make some calculations, by using formulas or, when there is no formula available, by using Montecarlo simulations. It is impossible to answer these questions just by intuition, not even approximately. What is the probability of winning by luck? Is it very bad luck to suffer a drawdown of 50 units? And 20 units? How many bets are needed to consider that the results are not affected by variance? Plain probabilities are often counterintuitive. This is a pretty powerful Drawdown Monte Carlo Simulation Calculator for Sports Betting, so before you start plugging in numbers, let us explain why we made it and how you can use it.
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